WatchTower — Weekly Brief & Setups

Last week at a glance

Win rate: 85%*
Premiums: $6,718*
Leaders: TSLL, BITO, SOXL, ZETA

*Select examples for education; not a verified track record.

What’s inside each brief

AI scores & liquidity checks
Exclusions (earnings, spreads, regime)
Execution notes (sizing, ladders, rolls)

This week

Week ending Aug 16, 2025

Published Aug 17, 2025 • Pre-market notes

S&P 500 — 6,449.80

Aug 15 close

TSLL $12.19

Leader

SOXL $27.37

Leader

Weekly WatchTower brief

As we open the week of August 18, this pre-market WatchTower reflects on last week’s put-selling performance within the 1% Collective System and provides actionable trades for August 18–24, 2025. Pre-market data (8:00 AM EDT) shows TSLL $12.19, SOXL $27.37, and ZETA $19.13. The S&P 500 closed at 6,449.80 on August 15, down 0.29%.

Key events this week include the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (Aug 21–23) with Fed Chair Powell's speech on Aug 22, U.S. PMI data on Aug 22, Existing Home Sales on Aug 21, and New Home Sales on Aug 22. These may drive volatility in tech and materials. IV remains elevated: TSLL ~100%, SOXL ~90%, ZETA ~65%.

Jump to setups Discuss in Community

Retrospective (week ending Aug 16)

TSLL: ~$2,135 total premiums across multiple trades (e.g., 25c @ $0.29 = $725, 2.42%). Bullish X sentiment on Tesla robotics supported high IV.
ZETA: ~$1,149 premiums (e.g., 10c @ $0.26 = $260, 1.49%). Ad-tech fundamentals + sentiment aided consistency.
SOXL: ~$880 premiums (10c @ $0.48 = $480, 1.92%). Semi rebound aligned with 93% QPAI score.
BITO: ~$2,254 premiums (12c @ $0.42 = $504, 1.95%). Crypto ETF stability helped.
HIMS: Assignment on 2c @ $54.00 (basis $53.68 after $0.32) → wheel started; opened CC @ $0.31 ($62).
TSLL: Early rolls on 8/11 (e.g., 10c @ $0.11) due to vol spikes reduced theta capture (≈-0.5% ROI hit on some legs).

What we learned: Hold the 1% weekly target to avoid overexposure in dips. Tighten CPC threshold to 0.85. Add Jackson Hole scenarios to 1% University simulations. Community X-sentiment inputs improved BITO & ZETA entries.

Performance (selected trades)

Date	Asset	Trade	Contracts	Premium	Strike	Return	Status
8/8/2025	TSLL	Put	30	$285	$10.00	0.95%	Closed
8/11/2025	ZETA	Put	10	$260	$17.50	1.49%	Rolled
8/11/2025	SOFI	Put	10	$300	$22.00	1.36%	Closed
8/11/2025	SOXL	Put	10	$480	$25.00	1.92%	Closed
8/11/2025	HIMS	Put	5	$390	$47.50	1.64%	Rolled
8/12/2025	TSLL	Put	25	$725	$12.00	2.42%	Open
8/15/2025	BITO	Put	12	$504	$21.50	1.95%	Open
8/15/2025	HIMS	CC	2	$62	$54.00	0.57%	Open

Educational examples only; not exhaustive. Options involve risk.

Level-based setup ideas (Aug 18–24, 2025)

Assumes 5–10% OTM, cash-secured puts expiring Aug 22, 2025. Execute only if QPAI ≥ 90 and spreads/liquidity pass checks.

TSLL ($12.19, IV ~100%)

$1K: 1× $11.50p, $20–30 → 1.7–2.6%
$10K: 8× → $160–240
$100K: 82× → $1,640–2,460
$300K: 246× → $4,920–7,380

Monitor Δ; roll only for net credit if Δ > 0.40.

ZETA ($19.13, IV ~65%)

$1K: 1× $18.00p, $25–35 → 1.4–1.9%
$10K: 5× → $125–175
$100K: 55× → $1,375–1,925
$300K: 166× → $4,150–5,810

Avoid earnings windows; verify spreads.

SOXL ($27.37, IV ~90%)

$1K: 1× $25.50p, $40–55 → 1.6–2.2%
$10K: 4× → $160–220
$100K: 36× → $1,440–1,980
$300K: 109× → $4,360–5,995

Leverage risk; size conservatively.

BITO ($21.17, IV ~70%)

$1K: 1× $20.00p, $30–40 → 1.5–2.0%
$10K: 5× → $150–200
$100K: 47× → $1,410–1,880
$300K: 141× → $4,230–5,640

Crypto sensitivity; confirm borrow/ETF announcements.

Risk rules: Trade only when QPAI ≥ 90. Position ≤ 5% of portfolio. Keep 10–15% cash. Watch Jackson Hole & Powell (Aug 22) for IV spikes. Consider early rolls if Δ ≥ 0.40 with DTE ≤ 3–5 and ≥ $0.30 credit.

Share your plan

Post your checklist and setups (TSLL, ZETA, SOXL, BITO) in the Community thread, including any Jackson Hole impact notes.

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These strategies are for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Please consult a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions.

WatchTower — AI-assisted weekly brief for disciplined put-selling.