WatchTower — Weekly Brief & Setups

📊 Retrospective: Week Ending August 31

✅ MSTU: $4,714 premiums (195 contracts, $0.05–$0.42). Returns 1.1–7.6%. CPC oversold confirmed QuantumPutAI (≥90%).
✅ TSLL: $4,862 premiums (196 contracts, $0.12–$0.22). 1.0–1.9% returns. Supported by bullish Tesla sentiment.
✅ HIMS: $385 premiums (9 contracts, $0.24–$0.55). 0.4–1.1% returns. Telehealth tailwinds noted.
✅ BITO: $1,714 premiums (64 contracts, $0.16–$0.51). Dividend (~$0.86/share) boosted ~2.1% yield. Wheel mitigated assignment losses.
⚠️ BITO: Price drop to $19.24 (~10.5%) caused ~$6,500 unrealized loss on ~3,000 shares. Highlighted wheel risks.

What We Learned: BITO dividend supports yields, but price risk is material. Roll tighter (DTE ≤3 days, Δ >0.40). Add wheel simulations to 1% Academy.

📈 Performance Table

Asset	Contracts	Premium/Contract	Net Premium	Strike	Return (%)	Status
MSTU	195	$0.05–$0.42	$4,714	$4.50–$5.50	1.1–7.6%	Rolled/Open
TSLL	196	$0.12–$0.22	$4,862	$11.50–$12.50	1.0–1.9%	Rolled/Open
HIMS	9	$0.24–$0.55	$385	$46.00–$48.50	0.4–1.1%	Rolled/Open
BITO	64	$0.16–$0.51	$1,714	$19.50–$21.50	0.8–2.3%	Assigned/Open

Educational examples only; options involve risk.

📈 Trade Recommendations: September 1–7, 2025

Assumes 5–10% OTM cash-secured puts expiring September 12, 2025. Use only if QuantumPutAI ≥ 90%.
Universe limited to tickers priced ≤ $50. $1K tiers appear only when truly cash-secured (strike × 100 ≤ $1,000).

🔹 TSLL ($13.51, IV ~90%)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000). Consider paper trade or defined-risk spread.
$10K: 8× $12.50p (≈5–10% OTM) → size ≤5%/trade.
$100K: 80×; ladder by $0.50; roll only for net credit if Δ > 0.40.

🔹 MSTU ($5.27, IV ~75%)

$1K: 1× $4.50p (≈5–10% OTM).
$10K: 20× $4.50–$5.00p; stagger strikes.
$100K: 200×; split across 2 expiries on IV spikes.

🔹 HIMS ($48.41, IV ~60%)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000).
$10K: 2× $45.00p.
$100K: 22×; consider partial collars on assignment.

🔹 BITO ($19.24, IV ~65%)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000).
$10K: 5× $18.00–$19.00p.
$100K: 50×; CCs on assigned shares OK.

🔹 SOXL ($27.45, IV ~85%)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000).
$10K: 4–6× $25.50p; leverage risk → size smaller.
$100K: 36×; split across expiries if needed.

🔹 ZETA ($19.55, IV ~68%)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000).
$10K: 5× $18.00p; avoid earnings window.
$100K: 55×; watch spreads/liquidity.

🔹 SOFI (~$25)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000).
$10K: 4–6× $22.00p (≈5–10% OTM).
$100K: 40–60×; ladder by $0.50.

🔹 SOXS (~$9–10)

$1K: 1× $9.00p (≈5–10% OTM).
$10K: 10×; stagger strikes.
$100K: 100×; inverse/leveraged — size conservatively.

Inverse/leveraged; confirm spreads & OI before entry.

🔹 NIO (~$5)

$1K: 1× $4.50p (≈5–10% OTM) if liquidity passes.
$10K: 10–15× $4.50p; avoid earnings week.
$100K: 100×; consider partial CCs on assignment.

🔹 ARKK (~$40–45)

$1K: N/A for CSP (strike×100 > $1,000).
$10K: 2–3× $40.00p (≈5–10% OTM).
$100K: 20–30×; keep tranche ≤5%.

Risk Rules: Trade only when QPAI ≥ 90. Limit to 5% per trade. Diversify across 3–5 tickers. Cap BITO at 20% of portfolio. Exclude names priced over $50. Always budget-check CSPs: strike × 100 ≤ account value.

Share your plan

Post your checklist and setups (TSLL, MSTU, HIMS, BITO, SOXL, ZETA, SOFI, SOXS, NIO, ARKK) in the Community thread, including any NFP/ISM impact notes.

Open Community

These strategies are for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Please consult a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions.

WatchTower — AI-assisted weekly brief for disciplined put-selling.